By Herron Todd White
April 2020


What has been driving the Tasmanian market?

Well, if I was writing this in February I would have said:

  • Improved economic sentiment and outlook under pinned by a continued improved local economy; being one of the best performed in the country,
  • Housing shortage,
  • Net population growth
  • Climate Change Factors
  • Strong/growing tourism sector.

However as I sit here pondering the road ahead it is clear that COVID-19 is likely to impact the market significantly and almost certainly to be a historic event.

I think everyone accepts in the short term there will be a contraction. So let’s skip this period. What happens next in, say, six month’s time when the world is ‘back to normal’?

If Tasmania is able to escape the spread of the virus; which at the time of writing is the case; our island’s “Clean Green” persona could fuel the recovery and next wave of population growth much quicker than anticipated as a further population heads south from the mainland states seeking the safer life style on offer. This is the key to a relative quick bounce back of the housing market.

However, on the flip side if the virus takes hold in the state and the borders remain shut for an extended period; clearly the tourism sector will be decimated. The job losses could result in a sharp down ward correction in pricing for an extended period.

We are at the moment seeing B n B properties being released into the long term rental market. This added over 100 houses/units last week alone into Hobart. While this is not unwelcome and hopefully will provide some relief to the rental sector it is likely a sign of things to come

Stay safe all.

Speak with a Tasmania Mortgage Broker today.

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