October Market Outlook

October Outlook

by CoreLogic

October 2018

Click here for October Outlook presentation.

  • National dwelling values fell for the 12th consecutive month in September 2018, down -0.5%.  Over the month, combined capital city values fell by -0.6% while the combined regional markets recorded a -0.2% fall.
  • The housing slowdown has become more broad based, with four of the capital cities recording an annual decline in dwelling values, while every other broad region has seen a clear slowdown in the pace of capital gains.
  • Our estimate of settled sales is down 10% nationally year on year, with steeper falls in Sydney (-18.5%) and Melbourne (-15.8%).
  • Rental markets remain reasonably subdued, with capital city rental growth tracking at just 0.8% over the past twelve months, while regional rental markets have seen weekly rents rise 2.7% over the year.
  • Rental yields have continued to lift from their record lows as rental growth outpaces value growth, however yields generally remain well below the long term average in most cities.
  • Vendor metrics have generally softened, with the number of days to sell a property and vendor discounting rates trending higher while auction clearance rates track lower.
  • Vendor confidence has weakened, with fewer new listings being added to the market, while total advertised stock levels track higher due to a slower rate of absorption.
  • The trend in population growth has eased over the twelve months ending March 2018, as both the rate of net overseas migration and the rate of natural increase fell.  Slower population growth has a negative implication for housing demand.
  • Dwelling approvals were down 13.6% over the twelve months to August 2018, with approvals for attached dwellings falling almost 24% while house approvals fell 4.4%.
  • Housing finance data and credit aggregates highlight the slowdown in investment lending, while owner occupier lending has slowed but remains relatively healthy, rising 7.6% over the 12 months to July 2018.
  • Official interest rates remain at 1.5%, however variable mortgage rates edged 5 basis points higher in September, reflecting an out of cycle rise from some lenders over the month.

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